Effect of reductions in amyloid levels on cognitive change in randomized trials: instrumental variable meta-analysis

Objective To evaluate trials of drugs that target amyloid to determine whether reductions in amyloid levels are likely to improve cognition.

Design Instrumental variable meta-analysis.

Setting 14 randomized controlled trials of drugs for the prevention or treatment of Alzheimer’s disease that targeted an amyloid mechanism, identified from ClinicalTrials.gov.

Population Adults enrolled in randomized controlled trials of amyloid targeting drugs. Inclusion criteria for trials vary, but typically include adults aged 50 years or older with a diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment or Alzheimer’s disease, and amyloid positivity at baseline.

Main outcome measures Analyses included trials for which information could be obtained on both change in brain amyloid levels measured with amyloid positron emission tomography and change in at least one cognitive test score reported for each randomization arm.

Results Pooled results from the 14 randomized controlled trials were more precise than estimates from any single trial. The pooled estimate for the effect of reducing amyloid levels by 0.1 standardized uptake value ratio units was an improvement in the mini-mental state examination score of 0.03 (95% confidence interval −0.06 to 0.1) points. This study provides a web application that allows for the re-estimation of the results when new data become available and illustrates the magnitude of the new evidence that would be necessary to achieve a pooled estimate supporting the benefit of reducing amyloid levels.

Conclusions Pooled evidence from available trials reporting both reduction in amyloid levels and change in cognition suggests that amyloid reduction strategies do not substantially improve cognition.

Reference: BMJ 2021;372:n156

Statin treatment and muscle symptoms: series of randomised, placebo controlled n-of-1 trials

Objective To establish the effect of statins on muscle symptoms in people who had previously reported muscle symptoms when taking statins.

Design Series of randomised, placebo controlled n-of-1 trials.

Setting Primary care across 50 sites in the United Kingdom, December 2016 to April 2018.

Participants 200 participants who had recently stopped or were considering stopping treatment with statins because of muscle symptoms.

Interventions Participants were randomised to a sequence of six double blinded treatment periods (two months each) of atorvastatin 20 mg daily or placebo.

Main outcome measures At the end of each treatment period, participants rated their muscle symptoms on a visual analogue scale (0-10). The primary analysis compared symptom scores in the statin and placebo periods.

Results 151 participants provided symptoms scores for at least one statin period and one placebo period and were included in the primary analysis. Overall, no difference in muscle symptom scores was found between the statin and placebo periods (mean difference statin minus placebo −0.11, 95% confidence interval −0.36 to 0.14; P=0.40)). Withdrawals because of intolerable muscle symptoms were 18 participants (9%) during a statin period and 13 (7%) during a placebo period. Two thirds of those completing the trial reported restarting long term treatment with statins.

Conclusions No overall effect of atorvastatin 20 mg on muscle symptoms compared with placebo was found in participants who had previously reported severe muscle symptoms when taking statins. Most people completing the trial intended to restart treatment with statins. N-of-1 trials can assess drug effects at the group level and guide individual treatment.

Trial registration ISRCTN30952488, EUDRACT 2016-000141-31, NCT02781064.

Reference: BMJ 2021;372:n135

Effect of redundant clinical trials from mainland China evaluating statins in patients with coronary artery disease

Objective To identify redundant clinical trials evaluating statin treatment in patients with coronary artery disease from mainland China, and to estimate the number of extra major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) experienced by participants not treated with statins in those trials.

Design Cross sectional study.

Setting 2577 randomized clinical trials comparing statin treatment with placebo or no treatment in patients with coronary artery disease from mainland China, searched from bibliographic databases to December 2019.

Participants 250 810 patients with any type of coronary artery disease who were enrolled in the 2577 randomized clinical trials.

Main outcome measures Redundant clinical trials were defined as randomized clinical trials that initiated or continued recruiting after 2008 (ie, one year after statin treatment was strongly recommended by clinical practice guidelines). The primary outcome is the number of extra MACEs that were attributable to the deprivation of statins among patients in the control groups of redundant clinical trials—that is, the number of extra MACEs that could have been prevented if patients were given statins. Cumulative meta-analyses were also conducted to establish the time points when statins were shown to have a statistically significant effect on coronary artery disease.

Results 2045 redundant clinical trials were identified published between 2008 and 2019, comprising 101 486 patients in the control groups not treated with statins for 24 638 person years. 3470 (95% confidence interval 3230 to 3619) extra MACEs were reported, including 559 (95% confidence interval 506 to 612) deaths, 973 (95% confidence interval 897 to 1052) patients with new or recurrent myocardial infarction, 161 (132 to 190) patients with stroke, 83 (58 to 105) patients requiring revascularization, 398 (352 to 448) patients with heart failure, 1197 (1110 to 1282) patients with recurrent or deteriorated angina pectoris, and 99 (95% confidence interval 69 to 129) unspecified MACEs.

Conclusions Of more than 2000 redundant clinical trials on statins in patients with coronary artery disease identified from mainland China, an extra 3000 MACEs, including nearly 600 deaths, were experienced by participants not treated with statins in these trials. The scale of redundancy necessitates urgent reform to protect patients.

Reference: BMJ 2021;372:n48

Home and Online Management and Evaluation of Blood Pressure (HOME BP) using a digital intervention in poorly controlled hypertension

Objective The HOME BP (Home and Online Management and Evaluation of Blood Pressure) trial aimed to test a digital intervention for hypertension management in primary care by combining self-monitoring of blood pressure with guided self-management.

Design Unmasked randomised controlled trial with automated ascertainment of primary endpoint.

Setting 76 general practices in the United Kingdom.

Participants 622 people with treated but poorly controlled hypertension (>140/90 mm Hg) and access to the internet.

Interventions Participants were randomised by using a minimisation algorithm to self-monitoring of blood pressure with a digital intervention (305 participants) or usual care (routine hypertension care, with appointments and drug changes made at the discretion of the general practitioner; 317 participants). The digital intervention provided feedback of blood pressure results to patients and professionals with optional lifestyle advice and motivational support. Target blood pressure for hypertension, diabetes, and people aged 80 or older followed UK national guidelines.

Main outcome measures The primary outcome was the difference in systolic blood pressure (mean of second and third readings) after one year, adjusted for baseline blood pressure, blood pressure target, age, and practice, with multiple imputation for missing values.

Results After one year, data were available from 552 participants (88.6%) with imputation for the remaining 70 participants (11.4%). Mean blood pressure dropped from 151.7/86.4 to 138.4/80.2 mm Hg in the intervention group and from 151.6/85.3 to 141.8/79.8 mm Hg in the usual care group, giving a mean difference in systolic blood pressure of −3.4 mm Hg (95% confidence interval −6.1 to −0.8 mm Hg) and a mean difference in diastolic blood pressure of −0.5 mm Hg (−1.9 to 0.9 mm Hg). Results were comparable in the complete case analysis and adverse effects were similar between groups. Within trial costs showed an incremental cost effectiveness ratio of £11 ($15, €12; 95% confidence interval £6 to £29) per mm Hg reduction.

Conclusions The HOME BP digital intervention for the management of hypertension by using self-monitored blood pressure led to better control of systolic blood pressure after one year than usual care, with low incremental costs. Implementation in primary care will require integration into clinical workflows and consideration of people who are digitally excluded.

Trial registration ISRCTN13790648.

Reference: BMJ 2021;372:m4858

Efficacy and safety of low and very low carbohydrate diets for type 2 diabetes remission

Objective To determine the efficacy and safety of low carbohydrate diets (LCDs) and very low carbohydrate diets (VLCDs) for people with type 2 diabetes.

Design Systematic review and meta-analysis.

Data sources Searches of CENTRAL, Medline, Embase, CINAHL, CAB, and grey literature sources from inception to 25 August 2020.

Study selection Randomized clinical trials evaluating LCDs (<130 g/day or <26% of a 2000 kcal/day diet) and VLCDs (<10% calories from carbohydrates) for at least 12 weeks in adults with type 2 diabetes were eligible.

Data extraction Primary outcomes were remission of diabetes (HbA_1c <6.5% or fasting glucose <7.0 mmol/L, with or without the use of diabetes medication), weight loss, HbA_1c, fasting glucose, and adverse events. Secondary outcomes included health related quality of life and biochemical laboratory data. All articles and outcomes were independently screened, extracted, and assessed for risk of bias and GRADE certainty of evidence at six and 12 month follow-up. Risk estimates and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using random effects meta-analysis. Outcomes were assessed according to a priori determined minimal important differences to determine clinical importance, and heterogeneity was investigated on the basis of risk of bias and seven a priori subgroups. Any subgroup effects with a statistically significant test of interaction were subjected to a five point credibility checklist.

Results Searches identified 14 759 citations yielding 23 trials (1357 participants), and 40.6% of outcomes were judged to be at low risk of bias. At six months, compared with control diets, LCDs achieved higher rates of diabetes remission (defined as HbA_1c <6.5%) (76/133 (57%) v 41/131 (31%); risk difference 0.32, 95% confidence interval 0.17 to 0.47; 8 studies, n=264, I²=58%). Conversely, smaller, non-significant effect sizes occurred when a remission definition of HbA_1c <6.5% without medication was used. Subgroup assessments determined as meeting credibility criteria indicated that remission with LCDs markedly decreased in studies that included patients using insulin. At 12 months, data on remission were sparse, ranging from a small effect to a trivial increased risk of diabetes. Large clinically important improvements were seen in weight loss, triglycerides, and insulin sensitivity at six months, which diminished at 12 months. On the basis of subgroup assessments deemed credible, VLCDs were less effective than less restrictive LCDs for weight loss at six months. However, this effect was explained by diet adherence. That is, among highly adherent patients on VLCDs, a clinically important reduction in weight was seen compared with studies with less adherent patients on VLCDs. Participants experienced no significant difference in quality of life at six months but did experience clinically important, but not statistically significant, worsening of quality of life and low density lipoprotein cholesterol at 12 months. Otherwise, no significant or clinically important between group differences were found in terms of adverse events or blood lipids at six and 12 months.

Conclusions On the basis of moderate to low certainty evidence, patients adhering to an LCD for six months may experience remission of diabetes without adverse consequences. Limitations include continued debate around what constitutes remission of diabetes, as well as the efficacy, safety, and dietary satisfaction of longer term LCDs.

Systematic review registration PROSPERO CRD42020161795.

Reference: BMJ 2021;372:m4743

Treatment of Uterine Fibroid Symptoms with Relugolix Combination Therapy

BACKGROUND

Uterine fibroids are a common cause of heavy menstrual bleeding and pain. Treatment with the combination of relugolix (an oral gonadotropin-releasing hormone-receptor antagonist), estradiol, and norethindrone acetate, administered once daily, may have efficacy in women with uterine fibroids and heavy bleeding while avoiding hypoestrogenic effects.

METHODS

We conducted two replicate international, double-blind, 24-week, phase 3 trials involving women with fibroid-associated heavy menstrual bleeding. Participants were randomly assigned in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive once-daily placebo, relugolix combination therapy (40 mg of relugolix, 1 mg of estradiol, and 0.5 mg of norethindrone acetate), or delayed relugolix combination therapy (40 mg of relugolix monotherapy, followed by relugolix combination therapy, each for 12 weeks). The primary efficacy end point in each trial was the percentage of participants with a response (volume of menstrual blood loss <80 ml and a ≥50% reduction in volume from baseline) in the relugolix combination therapy group, as compared with the placebo group. Key secondary end points were amenorrhea, volume of menstrual blood loss, distress from bleeding and pelvic discomfort, anemia, pain, fibroid volume, and uterine volume. Safety and bone mineral density were assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 388 women in trial L1 and 382 in trial L2 underwent randomization. A total of 73% of the participants in the relugolix combination therapy group in trial L1 and 71% of those in trial L2 had a response (primary end point), as compared with 19% and 15%, respectively, of those in the placebo groups (P<0.001 for both comparisons). Both relugolix combination therapy groups had significant improvements, as compared with the placebo groups, in six of seven key secondary end points, including measures of menstrual blood loss (including amenorrhea), pain, distress from bleeding and pelvic discomfort, anemia, and uterine volume, but not fibroid volume. The incidence of adverse events was similar with relugolix combination therapy and placebo. Bone mineral density was similar with relugolix combination therapy and placebo but decreased with relugolix monotherapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Once-daily relugolix combination therapy resulted in a significant reduction in menstrual bleeding, as compared with placebo, and preserved bone mineral density in women with uterine fibroids. (Funded by Myovant Sciences; LIBERTY 1 [L1] and LIBERTY 2 [L2] ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT03049735. opens in new tab and NCT03103087. opens in new tab, respectively.)

Reference: N Engl J Med 2021; 384:630-642

Early High-Titer Plasma Therapy to Prevent Severe Covid-19 in Older Adults

BACKGROUND

Therapies to interrupt the progression of early coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) remain elusive. Among them, convalescent plasma administered to hospitalized patients has been unsuccessful, perhaps because antibodies should be administered earlier in the course of illness.

METHODS

We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of convalescent plasma with high IgG titers against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in older adult patients within 72 hours after the onset of mild Covid-19 symptoms. The primary end point was severe respiratory disease, defined as a respiratory rate of 30 breaths per minute or more, an oxygen saturation of less than 93% while the patient was breathing ambient air, or both. The trial was stopped early at 76% of its projected sample size because cases of Covid-19 in the trial region decreased considerably and steady enrollment of trial patients became virtually impossible.

RESULTS

A total of 160 patients underwent randomization. In the intention-to-treat population, severe respiratory disease developed in 13 of 80 patients (16%) who received convalescent plasma and 25 of 80 patients (31%) who received placebo (relative risk, 0.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.29 to 0.94; P=0.03), with a relative risk reduction of 48%. A modified intention-to-treat analysis that excluded 6 patients who had a primary end-point event before infusion of convalescent plasma or placebo showed a larger effect size (relative risk, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.20 to 0.81). No solicited adverse events were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Early administration of high-titer convalescent plasma against SARS-CoV-2 to mildly ill infected older adults reduced the progression of Covid-19. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Fundación INFANT Pandemic Fund; Dirección de Sangre y Medicina Transfusional del Ministerio de Salud number, PAEPCC19, Plataforma de Registro Informatizado de Investigaciones en Salud number, 1421, and ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04479163. opens in new tab.)

Reference: N Engl J Med 2021; 384:610-618

Randomized Trial of a Vaccine Regimen to Prevent Chronic HCV Infection

BACKGROUND

A safe and effective vaccine to prevent chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a critical component of efforts to eliminate the disease.

METHODS

In this phase 1–2 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, we evaluated a recombinant chimpanzee adenovirus 3 vector priming vaccination followed by a recombinant modified vaccinia Ankara boost; both vaccines encode HCV nonstructural proteins. Adults who were considered to be at risk for HCV infection on the basis of a history of recent injection drug use were randomly assigned (in a 1:1 ratio) to receive vaccine or placebo on days 0 and 56. Vaccine-related serious adverse events, severe local or systemic adverse events, and laboratory adverse events were the primary safety end points. The primary efficacy end point was chronic HCV infection, defined as persistent viremia for 6 months.

RESULTS

A total of 548 participants underwent randomization, with 274 assigned to each group. There was no significant difference in the incidence of chronic HCV infection between the groups. In the per-protocol population, chronic HCV infection developed in 14 participants in each group (hazard ratio [vaccine vs. placebo], 1.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66 to 3.55; vaccine efficacy, −53%; 95% CI, −255 to 34). In the modified intention-to-treat population, chronic HCV infection developed in 19 participants in the vaccine group and 17 in placebo group (hazard ratio, 1.66; 95% CI, 0.79 to 3.50; vaccine efficacy, −66%; 95% CI, −250 to 21). The geometric mean peak HCV RNA level after infection differed between the vaccine group and the placebo group (152.51×10³ IU per milliliter and 1804.93×10³ IU per milliliter, respectively). T-cell responses to HCV were detected in 78% of the participants in the vaccine group. The percentages of participants with serious adverse events were similar in the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

In this trial, the HCV vaccine regimen did not cause serious adverse events, produced HCV-specific T-cell responses, and lowered the peak HCV RNA level, but it did not prevent chronic HCV infection. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01436357. opens in new tab.)

Reference: N Engl J Med 2021; 384:541-549

Phase 3 Trials of Tirbanibulin Ointment for Actinic Keratosis

BACKGROUND

The tubulin polymerization and Src kinase signaling inhibitor tirbanibulin is being investigated as a topical treatment for actinic keratosis, a precursor of squamous-cell carcinoma.

METHODS

In two identically designed double-blind trials, we randomly assigned, in a 1:1 ratio, adults with actinic keratoses on the face or scalp to receive either topical tirbanibulin or vehicle (placebo) ointment. The ointment was applied by the patients to a 25-cm² contiguous area containing four to eight lesions once daily for 5 consecutive days. The primary outcome was the percentage of patients with a complete (100%) reduction in the number of lesions in the application area at day 57. The secondary outcome was the percentage of patients with a partial (≥75%) reduction in the number of lesions within the application area at day 57. The incidence of recurrence was evaluated at 1 year. Local reactions were scored with the use of 4-point scale (ranging from 0 [absent] to 3 [severe]).

RESULTS

A total of 702 patients were enrolled in the two trials (351 patients per trial). Complete clearance in trial 1 occurred in 44% of the patients (77 of 175) in the tirbanibulin group and in 5% of those (8 of 176) in the vehicle group (difference, 40 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], 32 to 47; P<0.001); in trial 2, the percentages were 54% (97 of 178 patients) and 13% (22 of 173), respectively (difference, 42 percentage points; 95% CI, 33 to 51; P<0.001). The percentages of patients with partial clearance were significantly higher in the tirbanibulin groups than in the vehicle groups. At 1 year, the estimated percentage of patients with recurrent lesions was 47% among patients who had had a complete response to tirbanibulin. The most common local reactions to tirbanibulin were erythema in 91% of the patients and flaking or scaling in 82%. Adverse events with tirbanibulin were application-site pain in 10% of the patients and pruritus in 9%, all of which resolved.

CONCLUSIONS

In two identically designed trials, tirbanibulin 1% ointment applied once daily for 5 days was superior to vehicle for the treatment of actinic keratosis at 2 months but was associated with transient local reactions and recurrence of lesions at 1 year. Trials comparing tirbanibulin with conventional treatments and that have longer follow-up are needed to determine the effects of tirbanibulin therapy on actinic keratosis. (Funded by Athenex; ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT03285477. opens in new tab and NCT03285490. opens in new tab.)

Reference: N Engl J Med 2021; 384:512-520

A Cluster-Randomized Trial of Hydroxychloroquine for Prevention of Covid-19

BACKGROUND

Current strategies for preventing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection are limited to nonpharmacologic interventions. Hydroxychloroquine has been proposed as a postexposure therapy to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), but definitive evidence is lacking.

METHODS

We conducted an open-label, cluster-randomized trial involving asymptomatic contacts of patients with polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR)–confirmed Covid-19 in Catalonia, Spain. We randomly assigned clusters of contacts to the hydroxychloroquine group (which received the drug at a dose of 800 mg once, followed by 400 mg daily for 6 days) or to the usual-care group (which received no specific therapy). The primary outcome was PCR-confirmed, symptomatic Covid-19 within 14 days. The secondary outcome was SARS-CoV-2 infection, defined by symptoms compatible with Covid-19 or a positive PCR test regardless of symptoms. Adverse events were assessed for up to 28 days.

RESULTS

The analysis included 2314 healthy contacts of 672 index case patients with Covid-19 who were identified between March 17 and April 28, 2020. A total of 1116 contacts were randomly assigned to receive hydroxychloroquine and 1198 to receive usual care. Results were similar in the hydroxychloroquine and usual-care groups with respect to the incidence of PCR-confirmed, symptomatic Covid-19 (5.7% and 6.2%, respectively; risk ratio, 0.86 [95% confidence interval, 0.52 to 1.42]). In addition, hydroxychloroquine was not associated with a lower incidence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission than usual care (18.7% and 17.8%, respectively). The incidence of adverse events was higher in the hydroxychloroquine group than in the usual-care group (56.1% vs. 5.9%), but no treatment-related serious adverse events were reported.

CONCLUSIONS

Postexposure therapy with hydroxychloroquine did not prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection or symptomatic Covid-19 in healthy persons exposed to a PCR-positive case patient. (Funded by the crowdfunding campaign YoMeCorono and others; BCN-PEP-CoV2 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04304053. opens in new tab.)

Reference: N Engl J Med 2021; 384:417-427