Incidence Trends of Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes among Youths, 2002–2012


Diagnoses of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in youths present a substantial clinical and public health burden. The prevalence of these diseases increased in the 2001–2009 period, but data on recent incidence trends are lacking.


We ascertained cases of type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus at five study centers in the United States. Denominators (4.9 million youths annually) were obtained from the U.S. Census or health-plan member counts. After the calculation of annual incidence rates for the 2002–2012 period, we analyzed trends using generalized autoregressive moving-average models with 2-year moving averages.


A total of 11,245 youths with type 1 diabetes (0 to 19 years of age) and 2846 with type 2 diabetes (10 to 19 years of age) were identified. Overall unadjusted estimated incidence rates of type 1 diabetes increased by 1.4% annually (from 19.5 cases per 100,000 youths per year in 2002–2003 to 21.7 cases per 100,000 youths per year in 2011–2012, P=0.03). In adjusted pairwise comparisons, the annual rate of increase was greater among Hispanics than among non-Hispanic whites (4.2% vs. 1.2%, P<0.001). Overall unadjusted incidence rates of type 2 diabetes increased by 7.1% annually (from 9.0 cases per 100,000 youths per year in 2002–2003 to 12.5 cases per 100,000 youths per year in 2011–2012, P<0.001 for trend across race or ethnic group, sex, and age subgroups). Adjusted pairwise comparisons showed that the relative annual increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes among non-Hispanic whites (0.6%) was lower than that among non-Hispanic blacks, Asians or Pacific Islanders, and Native Americans (P<0.05 for all comparisons) and that the annual rate of increase among Hispanics differed significantly from that among Native Americans (3.1% vs. 8.9%, P=0.01). After adjustment for age, sex, and race or ethnic group, the relative annual increase in the incidence of type 1 diabetes was 1.8% (P<0.001) and that of type 2 diabetes was 4.8% (P<0.001).


The incidences of both type 1 and type 2 diabetes among youths increased significantly in the 2002–2012 period, particularly among youths of minority racial and ethnic groups. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.)

N Engl J Med 2017; 376:1419-1429

Prostate Cancer Incidence and PSA Testing Patterns in Relation to USPSTF Screening Recommendations

Importance  Prostate cancer incidence in men 75 years and older substantially decreased following the 2008 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation against prostate-specific antigen (PSA)–based screening for this age group. It is unknown whether incidence has changed since the USPSTF recommendation against screening for all men in May 2012.

Objective  To examine recent changes in stage-specific prostate cancer incidence and PSA screening rates following the 2008 and 2012 USPSTF recommendations.

Design and Settings  Ecologic study of age-standardized prostate cancer incidence (newly diagnosed cases/100 000 men aged ≥50 years) by stage from 2005 through 2012 using data from 18 population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registries and PSA screening rate in the past year among men 50 years and older without a history of prostate cancer who responded to the 2005 (n = 4580), 2008 (n = 3476), 2010 (n = 4157), and 2013 (n = 6172) National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

Exposures  The USPSTF recommendations to omit PSA-based screening for average-risk men.

Main Outcomes and Measures  Prostate cancer incidence and incidence ratios (IRs) comparing consecutive years from 2005 through 2012 by age (≥50, 50-74, and ≥75 years) and SEER summary stage categorized as local/regional or distant and PSA screening rate and rate ratios (SRRs) comparing successive survey years by age.

Results  Prostate cancer incidence per 100 000 in men 50 years and older (N = 446 009 in SEER areas) was 534.9 in 2005, 540.8 in 2008, 505.0 in 2010, and 416.2 in 2012; rates began decreasing in 2008 and the largest decrease occurred between 2011 and 2012, from 498.3 (99% CI, 492.8-503.9) to 416.2 (99% CI, 411.2-421.2). The number of men 50 years and older diagnosed with prostate cancer nationwide declined by 33 519, from 213 562 men in 2011 to 180 043 men in 2012. Declines in incidence since 2008 were confined to local/regional-stage disease and were similar across age and race/ethnicity groups. The percentage of men 50 years and older reporting PSA screening in the past 12 months was 36.9% in 2005, 40.6% in 2008, 37.8% in 2010, and 30.8% in 2013. In relative terms, screening rates increased by 10% (SRR, 1.10; 99% CI, 1.01-1.21) between 2005 and 2008 and then decreased by 18% (SRR, 0.82; 99% CI, 0.75-0.89) between 2010 and 2013. Similar screening patterns were found in age subgroups 50 to 74 years and 75 years and older.

Conclusions and Relevance  Both the incidence of early-stage prostate cancer and rates of PSA screening have declined and coincide with 2012 USPSTF recommendation to omit PSA screening from routine primary care for men. Longer follow-up is needed to see whether these decreases are associated with trends in mortality.

Prostate Cancer Incidence and PSA Testing Patterns in Relation to USPSTF Screening Recommendations by Ahmedin Jemal et al.